REDRAFTSZN
Dynasty season is dead. Love live dynasty season.
Time to toss a sheet of Bounce into your redraft dryer so those pesky second rate rookies don’t cling to your upcoming draft boards.
Not easy.
After spending the past few months getting all lathered up over the 2019 rookie crop, it usually takes me a few lower stakes Best Ball slow drafts to ease my way back into redraft mode.
Even then, the struggle to shed that pull of speculating on the youngsters seems to linger into my first few mid-stakes leagues.
For every Darrell Henderson in the 8th round when drafting early May, there will be multiple Joe Shmoe’s in the 10th and 11th rounds that eventually will fall into the 15th and 16th rounds by early July.
I’ve now managed to compile a large enough arsenal of draft boards to enable me to scrutinize how I’ve been attacking these mid-stakes online championship type leagues.
The rules vary slightly from event-to-event, but they all fall in that roughly $300 price range.
These are not the type of leagues where your motivation comes from winning vs. your eleven leaguemates, but rather the type where you crank up the aggression a few notches and keep your focus on assembling a team that can potentially beat thousands of competitors in the championship round.
Often times, the desire is to simply draft combinations of players you hope will be rare when the time comes to face doppelganger teams that may be 70% copies of your squad’s foundation when the big money is on the line.
A nice example I recently saw was when the 1.01 pick selected Saquon Barkley, then doubled up on tight ends Zach Ertz and George Kittle at the 2-3 turn. I had not seen that combination drafted in any other league, and being a TE-premium championship made it all the better.
They say you cannot win your league in the first few rounds, but you sure can stick a fork in it.
A plate piled high with league championship medals…that’s what’s for dinner.
For the sake of clarity, I’ve drafted a total of 16 mid-stakes leagues so far. The random draft slots I’ve been given and how my league mates have drafted has had a major impact on who I’ve selected to date.
For example, I am very high on players like Alvin Kamara and David Johnson heading into 2019, having both inside my “elite tier” of top five overall players, yet have zero shares of them. Should I continue to pile up entries, the odds are good I’ll eventually be given a 1.04 or 1.05 draft slot, but so far I have only received one 1.04 pick, and Kamara went first overall in that one. Should that trend continue, I’ve made up my mind to select Kamara with the next top three pick I get, just to have a piece of his exciting style of play. Same goes for David Johnson.
Thus far, my randomized draft slots have been the following.
1.01, 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 1.06, 1.06, 1.09, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 1.11, 1.11, 1.12, 1.12, 1.12, 1.12.
With four picks in the early third, two picks in the middle third and ten picks in the back third, my roster composition is quite skewed to the back third of the first round.
With a drafting style that leans RB early, most of my given slots had me missing out on that Elite 5 so I was looking for those remaining players with proven (or that I imagine to have similar) upside to those Elite 5, but with the red flags needed to get them to fall much further.
My teams were looking so clone-like, that after receiving yet another late round draft slot, I forced myself to go WR/WR to start, just to switch it up and see what fell to me at the 3-4 turn. Feeling stomach-punched when all of the 3rd round RB’s I like to target were gobbled up before getting back to me, I just shook my head and smiled, thinking “I guess that’s why I do what I do.”
I gave it one last try when the very next draft I again received a back end slot, this time going WR/RB to start, and with the way the cards fell, it actually turned out to be one of my better looking teams.
At least on paper.
And in early July.
As the graphic above highlights, this is how I drafted when given early and middle third draft slots.
FIRST ROUND
1.01 (Saquon Barkley)
I get a kick out of folks trying to make a name for themselves or attempting to tread deeper into the thickets of Clickbait Jungle by painting “Fade Saquon” narratives. Give me a break. Unless you are talking about saving a couple bucks in the Everdead Forrest of auction leagues (that haven’t gained an ounce of popularity in 30 years), fading Barkley is a fools play.
Ask these very same people where they have Barkley ranked, and you’ll expose them as charlatans when they admit he’s merely shuffled down a few notches, yet still remains inside their slightly different flavored top five.
With injuries and the like, nobody knows for certain who will be a top 10 fantasy player by the end of the 2019 season, but drafting a proven, healthy, young and hungry, high floor-high ceiling guy like Barkley is exactly what you want more than anything when setting the foundation for your team. To each his own regarding personal preferences for starting WR, RB or TE, but he is in my (and most others) Elite 5, and building a narrative that fades any of them is for suckers.
1.02 (Christian McCaffrey)
Same goes for McCaffrey. Hungry, adding muscle, training with sprinting coaches, etc. This is a young man’s game, and drafting these superstars while they are just beginning to build their NFL legacies is something to embrace.
For those few lucky enough the be gifted cream of the crop draft slots, the play is to maximize scoring upside with safety, and only a small circle of players can give you both. Every team has roster turnover and some chaos to deal with year to year, but recent NFL trends have the top running backs outscoring the shit out of the top wide receivers and tight ends.
This isn’t 2015.
The top fantasy WR has had his ass handed to him by the top fantasy RB over and over and over the last few years. There was a dry spell, but the recent influx of talented young running backs and coaches has shifted the top of the power paradigm for fantasy football back to RB. I feel it a waste of time to have to footnote full PPR, as that is what the big boys play. (Sorted by full season stat totals for added drama and to give credit to players who don’t shut it down early.)
2016
Top WR: Antonio Brown 307.30 FPTS
Top RB: David Johnson 406.40 FPTS (+99.10 FPTS)
(RB’s David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell all finished above WR Antonio Brown)
2017
Top WR: DeAndre Hopkins 311.80 FPTS
Top RB: Todd Gurley 387.30 FPTS (+75.50 FPTS)
(RB’s Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell both finished above WR DeAndre Hopkins)
2018
Top WR: DeAndre Hopkins 337.50 FPTS
Top RB: Christian McCaffrey 388.00 FPTS (+50.50 FPTS)
(RB’s Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara all finished above WR DeAndre Hopkins)
1.03 and 1.04 (Ezekiel Elliott)
This is the first player I selected who has some baggage to stress over. Thankfully, fantasy analysts and commentators aren’t the ones wielding the power to toss out suspensions for things that are not serious.
Rewind to last offseason, and Dallas was quite transparent in saying they had plans to work Elliott more into their passing attack. What many may not have noticed was that Zeke pulled off something quite rare in the NFL when he led the Cowboys in both rushing yards and touchdowns (no surprise) while also leading the team in targets and receptions.
With the young Kellen Moore being installed as the new OC in Dallas, there is some worry that he may call a different style of game, but you cannot unsee how the Cowboys offense clicked after acquiring WR Amari Cooper, winning 8 of their next 10 games. Moore may also have a strong Scott Linehan influence, having been around him for the past seven years going back to their days together with the Detroit Lions.
Durable with a solid floor-ceiling combo, Zeke is an easy top selection to build around as he hones his game a small step closer to his childhood idol Marshall Faulk.
1.06 x2 (Le’Veon Bell and Joe Mixon)
Both times I received the 1.06 pick, my Elite 5 unsurprisingly went top five. The latest I’ve seen Alvin Kamara fall to has been the 1.05, but I did have hopes of landing David Johnson after seeing him previously fall to the 1.06 pick or later nine times.
Nope.
I have some reservations regarding the scoring upside of the Jets and Bengals offense, but I’m confident in the abilities of Bell and Mixon to anchor my teams. Both have workhorse upside with a polished receiving game.
The junk that New York trotted out as running back last year managed a reasonable enough average and were heavily involved in the pass game. That bodes well for the more talented and well rounded Bell.
Fantasy players as a group are as fickle and fearful as it gets. I know little old ladies with way more guts. When a player is out of sight for any reason and for almost any amount of time, “the fear” sets in and they forget the talent was ever there. That is a good thing.
Cincinnati finally upgraded their worn out coaching staff with new HC Zac Taylor and his team of tech-savvy, analytics-driven underlings. Bengals president Mike Brown’s description of Taylor leaves little doubt.
“He embraces new ideas and new ways to do things…”
Evan Silva would be proud.
One cocoon just birthed a data-boss butterfly.
With Joe Mixon the centerpiece of their offense moving forward, it will be fun to see how their creative scheming gets him the ball in space.
Now moving to the back third of draft slots, my new forte.
1.09 x2 (Joe Mixon and Odell Beckham)
Once the Elite 5 are gone, the path opens up before you.
You get your choice from the upper echelon of wide receivers and tight ends, plus a handful of very talented running backs.
The loss of Cincinnati’s early first round pick OT Johan Williams to a torn labrum (left shoulder) brought the excitement for Mixon down just a tad, but he remains in a situation that looks ripe for fantasy.
Odell has new teammates, new coaching and a new playbook to learn, but the upgrade in accuracy and timing that Baker Mayfield brings makes the trade a big plus for Beckham’s value.
Hopefully he gets his body right and returns to his 2016 level of health, the last time he played a full season. The Giants made the playoffs that year, and that is something Odell may need to get used to now.
Hard to go wrong this year, with the first two rounds just stacked full of talented players in excellent situations.
Beckham is in a small mix of wideouts I feel could finish 2019 as the WR #1 if things go their way with high volume and good health.
Not a bad way to start building your team.
1.10 (Todd Gurley)
THIS!!!
This is one of the biggest reasons why I’ve jumped in early and drafted often. Seeing draft boards on twitter showing Gurley falling to the late second and early third round blew my mind, and I wanted to get all I could at his deflated price.
As you can see here, I’m even willing to draft him early on occasion.
Most of my shares have come in the second round, and all told, I’ve invested in Gurley as a foundational piece 10 times in my 16 mid-stakes leagues so far.
I obviously don’t mind all of the fear chatter keeping his price down.
Don’t mind it at all.
#REDRAFTSZN
1.11 x3 (Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon and Todd Gurley again)
Although I respect diversifying when you are drafting an extremely large number of teams, my inability to comfortably manage more than 40 or so waiver wires and lineups, etc. keeps me from entering that realm.
If I were a lower stakes Best Ball specialist and drafted 300+ teams, I’d be sure to track percentages of a single player and even stacks, so one injury wouldn’t hit the wallet too hard.
The way I see it, these mid-stakes championships pay out extremely top heavy, so after completing my offseason prep for them, I buy in hard on those players I feel can help me win an entire event.
You’ll see that same player hoarding throughout my leagues, even into the deep water rounds.
1.12 x4 (Davante Adams, Le’Veon Bell, Dalvin Cook and Todd Gurley)
Davante Adams only slipped to the 1.12 slot in 3 of my 16 drafts, with one of them happening to be the time I forced myself to start WR/WR in order to mix it up a bit, as my teams were looking too similar with so many late round draft positions.
I’ve held shares of Adams in Dynasty and it was nice to see the target load finally match up with his talent.
He’s set up for another strong run, in that small group fighting to be the top receiver in the NFL.
That fear chatter has also effected where Le’Veon has been drafted, being a top 6 overall pick in half (8) my leagues, yet also falling into the early second round a couple times.
With one of my 1.12 slot picks, I wanted to give Dalvin Cook some first round love, drafting him in front while picking back-to-back.
My gut thinks Dalvin will stay healthy and be in the conversation for Top 10 overall status in 2020 drafts.
That translates to an awesome 2019 season.
The best part about having 10 leagues with late round draft slots is that I have 10 leagues with early second round draft picks.
So many great players to choose from.
SECOND ROUND
2.01 4x (Michael Thomas, Dalvin Cook and Todd Gurley twice)
Another good thing about picking 12th is there is zero doubt regarding certain players falling the needed 23 picks to get back to you, so you can either draft them with your second of back-to-backs, or miss out for 2019.
The Michael Thomas pick was the second part of my dual wideout start. I actually love the top WR’s and go after them in dynasty trades, but with the way drafts have been playing out, the receivers in the mid-rounds still flirt with me, where the mid round running backs turn my stomach.
Drew Brees is at the end of his career, and his attempts and passing yards per game is already in decline. Kamara and Thomas should continue to be featured on offense, so I’m good adding Saints, but only for redraft.
2.02 3x (Dalvin Cook, Dalvin Cook and Dalvin Cook)
That story above about picking guys you know will not make it back to you and that other story about hoarding event-winning talents are starting to play out now.
Similar to how I have Todd Gurley on 10 of my 16 redraft teams, I have Dalvin Cook on 6 of 16 redraft as well as on 6 of my 7 Dynasty teams.
Elite level talent with the role and team to match.
2.03 (JuJu Smith-Schuster)
JuJu is another guy “in that top wideout bucket” as the respected Rich Hribar might say.
I’d gladly take what he’s done to date in his starts, with anything more just icing on the cake.
Great situation, uber-talented and so young he’s still filling out his frame.
I don’t waste my time watching other people’s lives on TV, but admit I am very interested in how the Great Pittsburgh Split plays out in Pittsburgh, New York and Oakland this season.
2.04 2x (Odell Beckham and Todd Gurley)
Being quite disappointed by which RBs made it back to me when I started WR/WR, I decided to no longer fund that experiment.
That dude from Jurassic Park who was living in a camper while digging up bones sounded sad when I broke him the news.
After email chatting with one of the best mid-to-high stakes fantasy players there are (both redraft and dynasty) Michael Cobb, I decided instead of reverting back to my usual RB/RB start, I’d split the difference and try drafting one of each (WR/RB) a few times to get a feel for it.
Not bad.
I like how both teams turned out, and will add this to my possible main event strategy, should I find out I received yet another back end draft slot when they release the first batch Monday, July 29th.
Mid-to-late second round picks.
2.07 2x (Todd Gurley and Dalvin Cook)
Training camp is right around the corner, and when the pads go on, every day becomes a little more dangerous.
The completely healthy today can be dinged up a few weeks from now, leveling the injury perception back more toward that of football season, where most every player is managing their day-to-day injuries.
Cooks, nutritionists, deep tissue massage therapy, stretching coaches, cupping, vasopneumatic devices, acupuncture, cryotherapy, ozone therapy, altitude simulation oxygen tents, stem cell therapy, ice baths, etc. are there for the serious players to utilize in their effort to rehab and maintain their bodies for the grind of the season.
I trust the players I draft to make use of these methods and more.
2.09 (Antonio Brown)
Similar to Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown has historically been a player that has gone off the board so early that I rarely ever had the chance to draft them before this year.
I LOVE 2019!
The Raiders are a difficult team for me to project, with the only thing I can bank on being the targets heading toward Antonio Brown.
Motivated to show the world and Big Ben that it was HE who made the Steelers offense really tick.
Adding a chip to that crazy man’s shoulder makes for an easy speculation.
Players who have shown main event winning upside are welcome here.
2.10 (Todd Gurley)
When I say hoarder, I mean hoarder!
Like I mentioned earlier, the free fall in Todd Gurley’s perceived value is what motivated me to jump in and draft leagues in May and June. Pairing a potential event winner like Todd Gurley with a Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliott like I’ve done was virtually impossible in previous years.
Fade on, fear dealers.
2.11 (Leonard Fournette)
In general I’ve tried to fill my teams with players I feel are on the more dynamic offenses in the NFL.
If you miss out on those, drafting the centerpiece on a ho-hum offense is next best.
Fournette should remain heavily involved in all phases, and should the Jaguars actually improve a bit with a new quarterback (Nick Foles) and a new Offensive Coordinator (John DeFilippo), they may have a few more second half clocks to grind away.
2.12 (Todd Gurley)
Sweet! My first share of Gurley!
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.
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Now you have seen into my mind.
The way I’ve attacked the first two rounds is not by accident.
The pool of attractive running backs dries up quickly this year, where the wide receivers have legs that go on for days.
A more brief recap on my tactics for rounds three through eleven is in order, but may come back to bite me come Vegas, so my gut is overruling.
Rounds twelve and later are mostly guys that will end up on the waiver wire at some point of desperation.
Hope I’ve steered you ever so slightly toward the money.